The turkey may not be able to fly very far. But their prices may soar—and the cost of other holiday staples such as cranberry sauce and pie fillings.

Due to strong consumer demand and labor shortages, the Thanksgiving dinner table was not immune to rampant price inflation elsewhere in the economy.

The U.S. Bureau of Agriculture estimates that this year's Thanksgiving feast for 10 people includes sweet potatoes, bread rolls, vegetable trays, and butter pie at a cost of $53.31, an increase of 14% over a year ago. This is an unusual spike. Prior to this year, the annual cost estimate has been declining since 2015.

A recent U.S. Department of Agriculture survey of grocery store prices revealed that a basket of Thanksgiving staples rose 5.5% after stores began offering more discounts.

"Inflation is real. Everyone is saying it. Everyone is feeling it," said Butterball President and CEO Jay Gendlin. "Whether it is labor, transportation, packaging materials, or energy to provide fuel for factories-everything needs to cost more."

Butterball, headquartered in North Carolina, supplies approximately one-third of Thanksgiving turkey. It was difficult to attract workers earlier this year, resulting in delays in processing. While the turkeys are waiting, they become larger, adding to the already skyrocketing corn and soybean feed costs.

But Jandrain said the labor shortage has eased and the company can get enough trucks to transport the turkey to the grocery store. Therefore, the number of turkeys as a whole will be about the same as last year, but the smaller birds will decrease.

"The good news about this is that everyone loves the leftovers after Thanksgiving, and they will have more this year," Jandrain said.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, the average wholesale price of frozen turkey from 8 to 16 pounds in mid-November was $1.35 per pound, a 27% increase from a year ago. The U.S. Department of Agriculture stated that stores offer discounts to attract shoppers, and the average advertised price of this size turkey in the week before Thanksgiving is much lower than the wholesale cost, at 93 cents per pound. This is still an increase of more than 9% over last year.

For other staple foods, weather conditions exacerbate labor shortages. Due to heavy rain and fungus in Illinois (the main supplier) and drought in California, the pumpkin harvest was small. According to Nielsen IQ, the average price of fresh pumpkins was US$2.72 per pound at the beginning of November, up 5% from a year ago. The price of green beans rose 4%, while the price of canned cranberry sauce rose 2.5%.

Ryanne Bowyer of Dallas, Texas usually buys turkey a day or two after Thanksgiving to save money. But this year, she signed up for Ibotta, a receipt scanning app that provided her with turkey, potatoes, corn, soup, gravy, and cornbread from Walmart — all for free — just for registration.

"If that doesn't happen, my plan is to go to the woods to bake Wiener with my wife," Bowyer joked.

Despite this, many retailers facing their own cost pressures are canceling their usual Thanksgiving promotions. Mark Jordan, executive director of Leap Market Analytics, which tracks the livestock and poultry markets, said that in the week before Thanksgiving, the number of US stores offering turkey specials was at its lowest level since 2017.

"There will still be some discounts, but some extreme gifts will be less and less," Jordan said.

Diana Jepsen, a retiree from West Hartford, Connecticut, said her Thanksgiving turkey is usually $1 per pound. This year, her 23-pound Butterball sells for $1.50 per pound. But she still thinks this is a good value, especially when compared to the beef and chicken price increases she has seen recently.

Jepsen will celebrate Thanksgiving with 21 family members, including her 96-year-old mother. Her Cuban-American family smeared turkey in mojo criolo marinade. Jepsen's husband, former Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen (George Jepsen) cooked turkey according to his mother-in-law's recipe. She said that the prices of other staple foods they serve, including black beans and yucca, have not risen. Jepsen also sells boxed packing.

"We still think that being able to provide services to so many people is a good deal," she said.

Jandrain said that higher turkey prices may continue until 2022. Feed costs as well as labor and transportation costs remain high.

However, this may help the turkey business, which has faced sluggish demand for parts such as turkey breast and deli meat for years. Jordan said the industry slaughtered 159 million turkeys in the first nine months of 2021, bringing the per capita supply of turkeys in the United States to its lowest level since 1987. Higher prices may encourage farmers to raise and slaughter more turkeys next year.

For some shoppers, the biggest concern this year is availability—not price. Lauren Knapp, an economist in Rochester, New York, bought two frozen turkey weeks in advance because of concerns about shortages. Knapp and her partner plan to cook a practice meal for Thanksgiving and a second meal for relatives in early December.

"Friends in Washington said it would be a Thanksgiving chicken because they couldn't find turkey anywhere," Knapp said, although some of the items she bought, such as low-sodium turkey slices for sandwiches, are more It was difficult to buy turkey, but she was relieved. since this year.

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