John Stanton recently bought chicken for 98 cents per pound.

"I thought to myself,'How can they raise a chicken so cheaply?'" said Stanton, a resident of southern New Jersey.

This is a question that Stanton can answer well. He is the Dean of the Department of Food Marketing at St. Joseph's University in Philadelphia and the former editor of the Journal of Food Marketing.

"Sometimes farmers have more inventory, and suddenly, you have all these extra products," he said. "It's not like canned soup that can be kept on a shelf for five years. It's either sold or thrown away."

Just a few months ago, chicken prices skyrocketed. Many people will tell you that the price is still high. However, Stanton was able to find it at a low price-this example illustrates how chaotic the grocery market is now.

We were told that this Thanksgiving Day would be one of the most expensive Thanksgiving Days to date-this claim is supported by a lot of data and market research. So why do some people find great deals on everything from butter to eggs to Stanton's chicken? In such a turbulent market, what is the best way to save?

Let's break it down.

The annual Thanksgiving cost survey of the United States Agricultural Bureau is severe in every way. The average cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal for 10 people is $53.31—about $6 per person. This is an increase of 14% from last year's average: $46.90.

Prices in Turkey have risen by 24% over last year; cranberries have risen by 11%; sweet potatoes have risen by 4%; russet potatoes have risen by 16%.

Of course, last year’s Thanksgiving meal was below average, because many people decided to host a more intimate dinner due to the pandemic. However, this year's meals are even more expensive than in previous years-up 9% from 2019.

Data from the Food Industry Association (abbreviated as FMI) shows that there are many problems in the supply chain. There are always problems with sourcing materials, ingredients and equipment: from livestock to aluminum. Droughts, wildfires and hurricanes destroyed the crops. Supplies have been stranded in the port for several weeks, and there are not enough workers to transport them to grocery stores and manufacturers.

"This will have a knock-on effect," said Doug Baker, FMI's vice president of industry relations. "We see some pretty good delays. Sometimes deliveries are delayed by six to eight weeks."

The result: Grocery store prices rise.

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There are two main reasons why certain foods are still affordable.

The first is based on common sense. Where there is surplus, prices will fall. Stanton uses mushrooms as an example. He said that if there are healthy mushroom crops, the price will be lowered so that farmers can sell them before they spoil. Otherwise, they will have to sell to canneries and get much less revenue.

He said that manufacturers also tend to overcorrect. "Manufacturers often say,'Hey, the price of chickens has gone up. We should raise more chickens. Then, once these are ready for sale, there will be a surplus and the price will fall."

The second reason why some groceries are still affordable is of little significance. Baker said the shortage is too unpredictable. Even organizations that carefully observe the supply chain like FMI know nothing about what, when, and where grocery prices will rise. 

"Food popularity is regional," Baker said. "The most popular food in a particular area of ​​the country may not be elsewhere."

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However, our experts say that it is possible to escape the holiday with an intact bank account.

Baker recommends planning meals as early as possible.

"Scheduling meals reduces food waste, makes it easier to set a weekly or monthly grocery budget, and saves money by helping you buy only what you need and allowing you to buy staple foods in bulk to cook at home," he said.

Don't look at national trends to find out what is affordable in your area. Our experts recommend that you sign up for your grocery store’s loyalty program and download its app to get transaction reminders. When daily necessities are on sale, buy more. Prices may rise in a few weeks.

"Buy at a discount," Stanton said. "You are taking advantage of the fact that manufacturers need to get rid of the products they own."

Baker said that if your store has a registered dietitian (many of them have), they can also help you expand your budget and discover new recipes.

But perhaps the best advice is to buy groceries from the store’s own brand—whether it is ShopRite’s Bowl & Basket or Target’s Market Pantry. Stanton said that many private labels are produced by the same company that produces brand-name products.

"It is very common for large frozen vegetable producers to enter into deals with supermarkets," Stanton said. "If the store puts their branded products on the shelf, they will produce the store's own brand at a lower price."

The supermarket will also increase the price of branded goods to make money, and keep the price of its own brand unchanged to build customer loyalty. Stanton said: "Without raising the price, it makes them look more like a better partner."

"Also," he added. "After all, a can of corn is a can of corn."

Rebecca King is a food writer for NorthJersey.com. For more information on where to eat and drink, subscribe and sign up for our North Jersey Eats newsletter today.